Oil jumps on Iran, gold falls on jobs, and gilts do both

A strong US jobs report cooled bets on near-term rate cuts even as Iran-linked disruption pushed oil to its best week since July. Gilt yields spiked to an 18-year high on the same combination before easing back.

Abhineet RaiFounder · Wealth Adviser Week ending Friday 4 September 2026 About a four-minute read

The week in figures

Each figure as at its own date · sources below

Bank Rate 3.75% Unchanged3 Sept ECB refinancing rate 2.40% Unchanged4 Sept Fed funds target 3.50–3.75% Unchanged3 Sept UK 10-year gilt 5.17% +11 bps2 Sept US 10-year Treasury 4.78% +5 bps4 Sept US 2-year Treasury 4.37% +3 bps4 Sept GBP / USD 1.3530 −0.4%4 Sept GBP / EUR 1.1642 −0.2%4 Sept Brent crude $96.02 +7.0%1 Sept

UK CPI inflation 2.9% +0.3 pp31 Jul

One week, two stories, and the market tried to price both as if they were the same one

The week's most interesting fact is not any single number but how quickly two of them changed places. Gold rallied through Wednesday on dovish comments from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, who said he would favour holding rates steady if price pressures kept easing. By Friday it had given that back and more, falling to $4,415.40 an ounce1 after US payrolls came in far stronger than expected. Nonfarm employment rose by 162,000 in August, roughly three times the consensus estimate, with June and July both revised up.2 That is a wide miss in one direction followed by a fact that argued the opposite way, inside five trading days.

Oil told a cleaner story, because it had a cleaner cause. Brent crude rose to $96.02 as US and Iranian forces exchanged strikes for the first time since July, disrupting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.3 WTI moved on the same news, up 8.2% on the week to $91.48 a barrel.4 Gilts absorbed both stories at once. The energy shock pushed UK inflation expectations higher just as the jobs number pushed US rate expectations the same way, and the 10-year gilt yield touched an 18-year high before Waller's remarks and a pause in oil's advance pulled it back to 5.17%, still up 11 basis points on the week.

None of this resolves anything. The question of whether the Federal Reserve cuts, holds or reverses course was not settled by one payrolls report, and the question of whether Gulf tensions produce a lasting supply disruption was not settled by one week of strikes. What the week shows is how little conviction sits behind the moves that dominate a Monday's headlines. A market that rallies gold on a dovish sentence and sells it on a jobs print, in the same five days, is not repricing the world. It is holding a view too lightly to need much to dislodge it.

Abhineet RaiFounder · Wealth Adviser, Rai Wealth Management

Equities

US · UK · India

The S&P 500 still managed a 0.1% gain on the week despite falling 0.38% on Friday, when the payrolls surprise revived talk of a September rate rise rather than a cut. Chip and AI-linked names were the split: Nvidia, Micron and Marvell gained while Apple, Alphabet and Microsoft fell.5
The FTSE 100 ended close to flat on the week, recovering most of a Wednesday fall driven by rising oil prices and gilt yields once those yields eased back on Thursday.6
India's Nifty 50 and Sensex both fell around 1% on the week, weighed down by autos and consumer names, before a Friday rebound as global rate-hike fears eased.7

Rates & Fixed Income

UK · US

The UK 10-year gilt yield touched a 19-year high of 5.29% on Wednesday before easing to close the week at 5.17%, up 11 basis points.8
Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill argued that raising rates now could reduce the risk of having to tighten more aggressively later, and markets are now pricing a rate rise by year end.9 The Bank's next scheduled decision falls on 17 September 2026.10
The US 10-year Treasury yield rose 5 basis points to 4.78% and the 2-year rose 3 basis points to 4.37%, both moving on Friday's jobs data.11 The Federal Reserve's next meeting is 15 and 16 September 2026.12

Commodities

Oil & gas · Gold

Brent crude rose 7.0% on the week to $96.02, its strongest weekly performance since July, as Iran and the United States exchanged strikes and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz thinned.13 WTI crude rose 8.2% to $91.48 a barrel on the same news.4
Gold fell 3.2% on the week to $4,415.40 an ounce, giving back a rally built on dovish Fed commentary once Friday's jobs number reversed the rate-cut expectations behind it.1
Henry Hub natural gas rose 2.8% to $2.90 per million BTU.14

Currencies

GBP

Sterling fell 0.4% against the dollar to 1.3530 and 0.2% against the euro to 1.1642, as the stronger US jobs report supported the dollar across the board.

What I'm Watching

The week ahead

The ECB holds its policy meeting on 9 and 10 September, its first live decision window since July, with markets watching for any shift in tone after the summer's inflation data.15
OPEC+ meets on 6 September, and given the week's price moves, whatever it signals on output will matter more than usual.16
The Federal Reserve's meeting on 15 and 16 September follows directly from Friday's payrolls surprise, which has already shifted rate expectations once this week.12
The Bank of England's decision on 17 September comes after a week in which gilt yields hit an 18-year high, raising the stakes on whatever the MPC's vote split reveals.9

Sources

Market Snapshot figures from Bank of England, ECB Data Portal, New York Fed, US Treasury, EIA and ONS. Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.

Abhineet Rai

Founder · Wealth Adviser, Rai Wealth Management

Abhineet founded Rai Wealth Management after more than two decades in banking, including spells as a Director in Private Banking at Credit Suisse, Bank of Singapore and HSBC Private Bank in London. He trained at the National Defence Academy in India before taking an MBA, and holds certifications in Investment Planning, Securities & Derivatives, and Regulated Mortgage advice.

20+ years in banking
Credit Suisse · Bank of Singapore · HSBC
NDA-trained, then MBA

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