Rai Wealth Management

Why It Matters

A letter on equities, rates, currencies and commodities. Abhineet writes it on a Sunday and it lands on Monday morning. Every figure carries its own date and its own source, and the whole issue is free to read.

Written by Abhineet Rai Mondays, 08:00 UK About a five-minute read

Latest issue · Monday 14 September 2026

Oil, gilts and a hot CPI print push yields to a 19-year high

UK 10-year gilt yields breached levels last seen before the financial crisis after oil prices jumped and inflation expectations rose. US and Indian equities fell too, though a Friday rebound softened the week's losses.

The week in figures

Each figure as at its own date · sources in the issue

Bank Rate 3.75% Unchanged10 Sept
ECB refinancing rate 2.40% Unchanged11 Sept
Fed funds target 3.50–3.75% Unchanged10 Sept
UK 10-year gilt 5.19% +12 bps9 Sept
US 10-year Treasury 4.96% +18 bps11 Sept
US 2-year Treasury 4.63% +26 bps11 Sept
GBP / USD 1.3508 −0.2%11 Sept
GBP / EUR 1.1653 +0.1%11 Sept
Brent crude $109.51 +7.1%9 Sept
UK CPI inflation 2.9% +0.3 pp31 Jul

Yields are repricing a shock, not a new regime

The week's story is a chain, not a coincidence. Oil went up sharply after fresh US-Iran strikes in the Persian Gulf, gilt and Treasury yields went up in response, and equities fell in step until Friday, when oil eased and stocks recovered some of the ground. None of that requires a change of view about growth or inflation over the next few years. It requires only a view about what a supply shock to energy does to prices in the next few months, and markets have been quick to answer that question with certainty they do not really have.

Read issue 5 in full

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Earlier issues

Newest first

  1. Issue 4 · Monday 7 September 2026

    Oil jumps on Iran, gold falls on jobs, and gilts do both

    Oil surged on Iran strikes, gold fell on US jobs, and gilt yields hit an 18-year high.

    Brent crude $96.02US 10-year Treasury 4.78%UK 10-year gilt 5.17%

  2. Issue 3 · Monday 31 August 2026

    A hawkish word from Jackson Hole moved more than a rate did

    A hawkish Fed speech erased most of Nvidia's rally without a single rate actually moving.

    Fed funds target 3.50–3.75%UK 10-year gilt 5.01%Brent crude $88.24

  3. Issue 2 · Monday 24 August 2026

    Bond yields, not central banks, ran the week

    Bond yields rose on hawkish Fed minutes and a Treasury buyback move, lifting gold and unsettling equities.

    UK 10-year gilt 5.04%US 10-year Treasury 4.74%US 2-year Treasury 4.24%

  4. Issue 1 · Monday 17 August 2026

    Cheaper oil, dearer gold: markets can't agree on the risk

    Equities rose on soft US inflation while oil and gold both jumped on Middle East risk.

    Brent crude $93.26US 10-year Treasury 4.68%UK 10-year gilt 4.94%

Risk warning and disclosure

Your capital is at risk. The value of investments and any income from them can fall as well as rise, and you may get back less than you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Tax treatment depends on your individual circumstances and may change.

This is not advice. Why It Matters is general market commentary. It contains no recommendation and takes no account of your circumstances, objectives or holdings. Nothing in it should be read as a suggestion to buy, sell or hold any investment. See the full risk warnings and disclaimer.

How the letter is prepared. The research and first draft of each issue are produced with AI assistance from primary-source data. Every figure is checked against its source before publication, and the commentary and the whole issue are reviewed, edited and approved by Abhineet Rai before it is sent.

Regulatory information. Rai Wealth Management Ltd is registered as a private limited company in England and Wales under company number 12318787. Registered office: 6 Westholme Gardens, Ruislip, HA4 8QJ, United Kingdom. Rai Wealth Management Ltd works under a Contract for Services Agreement with Maystone Capital Ltd, which is directly authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority under reference number 758412. Rai Wealth Management Ltd is not directly authorised and is not an Appointed Representative; all regulated activities are undertaken by Maystone Capital Ltd.